La Liga · resolved market
Will Girona win on 2025-09-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95d203b89be076bbb04a8a37f743ade39b6a012beadcd874e56d477606771dd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 17c | 8,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 241 | 45.2%109 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 47c | 2,857$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.45 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 19c | 2,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 45c | 1,642$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.09 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 22c | 758$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked No | 56c | 715.18$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 16c | 702.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9e…46b5backed Yes | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 70c | 639.53$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.55 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed No | 57c | 630.92$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.84 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Yes | 45c | 447.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 17c | 427.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…77c9backed Yes | 48c | 418.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 18c | 416.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 50c | 396.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 57c | 360.45$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.84 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 45c | 349$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…fe86backed Yes | 53c | 245.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 139 | 69.8%97 W · 42 L | +30.1wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0565…789abacked Yes | 51c | 198.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 48c | 159.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa9…7a30backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…a1dbbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed Yes | 9c | 112.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 17c | 109.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…582dbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…fac1backed Yes | 53c | 105.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…53a3backed Yes | 50c | 100.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…5840backed Yes | 53c | 94.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 80c | 88.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Yes | 49c | 88.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 79c | 76.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 50c | 71.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +27%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…7a12backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed No | 80c | 58.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 20c | 57.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534e…ecfebacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Yes | 53c | 42.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…6600backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9027…9973backed Yes | 69c | 40.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ab…fc85backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b86ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 49c | 30.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…d004backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 43c | 23.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8402backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Girona win on 2025-09-14?this page
- Will Celta Vigo vs. Girona end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-09-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.