NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95f07e6328c82f4215388ef9bc0b537fcddef20a4cd235df790f4443a2e7bf26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Over | 51c | 481.97$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.97 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 50c | 330$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 215.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…5efcbacked Over | 49c | 196$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…0293backed Under | 51c | 187$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…8e99backed Over | 49c | 180$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Under | 50c | 168$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 167.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…03f4backed Under | 51c | 165$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x222e…0d53backed Over | 50c | 158$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…30c8backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ece…50f0backed Over | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 51.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…7f7cbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed Over | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 34.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.