NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa25016eca26c44cee94cdff4810e336ab513af64076b79a771c92d5b3f949e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c51…60bcbacked Raptors | 45c | 1,900$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…5850backed Cavaliers | 55c | 1,900$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed Cavaliers | 68c | 1,800$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226 | 207 | 46.4%96 W · 111 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Raptors | 31c | 1,116$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.77 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 33c | 713.54$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.95 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Cavaliers | 55c | 256$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.32 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Cavaliers | 69c | 184$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 289 | 40.8%118 W · 171 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raptors | 41c | 171.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…8dc4backed Raptors | 32c | 162$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Raptors | 35c | 161$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…5a9abacked Raptors | 32c | 158$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…03f4backed Cavaliers | 68c | 153$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…8b7abacked Raptors | 33c | 152$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…2006backed Cavaliers | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…8223backed Cavaliers | 68c | 147$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Raptors | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…fa4bbacked Cavaliers | 67c | 142$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Raptors | 32c | 127.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Raptors | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Raptors | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Cavaliers | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac1…6775backed Cavaliers | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…8339backed Raptors | 32c | 32.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.