NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6ca155e01ca59b3a6620b69026f58c7559d7222348ef29e1014190e32212069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raptors | 47c | 12,399$5,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,602.32 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 6,108$3,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,242.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Raptors | 47c | 2,100$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 53c | 1,674$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.02 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Cavaliers | 55c | 1,275$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 1,124$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.4 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Raptors | 46c | 1,050$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Cavaliers | 54c | 1,033$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Cavaliers | 54c | 1,019$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…9fbcbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 908.62$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raptors | 45c | 741.98$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.54 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 37c | 540$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Cavaliers | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 784 | 45.8%359 W · 425 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…d25fbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 406.45$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Raptors | 44c | 403.02$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.69 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…f294backed Cavaliers | 56c | 399.57$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.76 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 53c | 378.57$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Cavaliers | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cavaliers | 54c | 334$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.44 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cavaliers | 32c | 305.44$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Raptors | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Raptors | 44c | 294.03$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.25 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…daa2backed Cavaliers | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Cavaliers | 57c | 225.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Cavaliers | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…8ac9backed Cavaliers | 57c | 189.47$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43e…0c5bbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cavaliers | 50c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Raptors | 51c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Raptors | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Cavaliers | 54c | 138.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Raptors | 46c | 105$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ae…5fdebacked Raptors | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Cavaliers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…0893backed Cavaliers | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Cavaliers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397a…59febacked Raptors | 47c | 58.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Raptors | 46c | 54.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Cavaliers | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Cavaliers | 56c | 48.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 53c | 44.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Raptors | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Cavaliers | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0b…1466backed Cavaliers | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2a…9739backed Cavaliers | 55c | 28.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.