NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc563dc902ba95cd0d1f9a2ead54e1cd67e83dab5d0061d89d608306c0dd54172
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 50c | 7,762$3,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,881 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 7,000$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 50c | 4,150$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.5 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 3,757$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.79 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 3,166$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…f1ecbacked Over | 52c | 2,788$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.46 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 2,699$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.44 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 49c | 926$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.26 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…797abacked Over | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…b4cfbacked Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 50c | 561.6$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 54c | 462.49$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.06 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f42…c99ebacked Under | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 24c | 116.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Over | 55c | 113.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 104.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 19c | 104$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Under | 51c | 93.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 32c | 87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 30c | 68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…b6aabacked Over | 55c | 60.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Under | 52c | 54.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 625 | 39.4%246 W · 379 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Over | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…2ab8backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…0b03backed Over | 54c | 25.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Over | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Under | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…4edbbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.