NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f313bfbf1e687001702ab06a5125f4a1bec7f50364d9a93ef683a790dbcf6b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 4,477$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.48 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 59c | 3,390$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.83 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 57c | 519.23$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.27 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 55c | 482.13$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.17 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 369.89$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.44 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222e…0d53backed Over | 43c | 368.43$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.42 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 46c | 268.43$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 60c | 260.48$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.29 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…2db7backed Under | 49c | 176$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…e673backed Over | 44c | 173$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 40c | 166.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 166$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…8e99backed Under | 56c | 166$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe0…8348backed Over | 44c | 164$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb332…c5aabacked Under | 56c | 158$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8749…bc74backed Under | 53c | 133.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…5813backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Under | 57c | 94.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 42c | 87.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e898backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…59b1backed Under | 59c | 62.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 55.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Under | 59c | 50.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…da19backed Under | 40c | 30.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Under | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…cebcbacked Under | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.