TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,522
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,971

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,522 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes11c660.8$72 inLost-$71.833625%9 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2936…7be9backed Yes11c538.3$59 inLost-$58.541618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes14c532.3$73 inLost-$73.13616.7%6 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Yes46c317.71$147 inLost-$146.751442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Yes11c227.89$25 inLost-$25.072321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes15c208$31 inLost-$30.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Yes49c190$92 inLost-$92.341833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c161.63$18 inLost-$18.342448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Yes15c140$20 inLost-$20.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf934…8858backed Yes22c135$30 inLost-$29.7837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+104.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes13c133.57$17 inLost-$17.364235.7%15 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes10c129.06$14 inLost-$13.58535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes10c122.74$12 inLost-$11.81559.1%5 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes18c111.76$20 inLost-$19.62944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ef7…fba9backed Yes15c102.74$15 inLost-$15.36520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-64.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes12c99.99$12 inLost-$128236.6%30 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c86…e223backed Yes13c99.98$13 inLost-$131435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes13c99.06$13 inLost-$12.664020%8 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c2…7f63backed Yes16c95.18$15 inLost-$14.931330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b86…fdadbacked Yes16c78$12 inLost-$12.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc73…5c7bbacked Yes16c74$12 inLost-$11.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a82…7547backed Yes33c68.82$23 inLost-$231764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes22c51.11$11 inLost-$11.352339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No79c34.72$27 inWon+$7.431070%7 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No66c23.24$15 inWon+$7.81442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No52c19.94$10 inWon+$9.571973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.