Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Team Envy vs NRG - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96ae7d45dfb7528434d7db8a8a028d4ca652995ef513a072c1006ec6ccb1a81d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRGof Team Envy, NRG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Team Envy | 25c | 5,405$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.54 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed NRG | 75c | 2,633$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.77 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…3525backed Team Envy | 23c | 2,549$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Team Envy | 22c | 2,525$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.99 | 390 | 42.6%166 W · 224 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Team Envy | 6c | 2,215$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 220 | 18.2%40 W · 180 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked NRG | 73c | 2,207$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.04 | 684 | 58.3%399 W · 285 L | +56.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Team Envy | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed NRG | 74c | 1,899$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.63 | 563 | 57.9%326 W · 237 L | +36.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Envy | 17c | 1,801$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 253 | 36.4%92 W · 161 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked NRG | 73c | 1,703$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.07 | 509 | 44.6%227 W · 282 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Envy | 29c | 1,397$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.26 | 943 | 61.2%577 W · 366 L | +58.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…9f91backed Team Envy | 16c | 1,157$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.97 | 600 | 22.7%136 W · 464 L | -26.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked NRG | 71c | 1,094$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.13 | 533 | 55.3%295 W · 238 L | +24.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked NRG | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 331 | 53.5%177 W · 154 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75b…e377backed NRG | 79c | 999.99$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked NRG | 79c | 923.96$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.65 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Team Envy | 27c | 861.11$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.08 | 517 | 49.5%256 W · 261 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…c98bbacked Team Envy | 20c | 775.45$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9166…b479backed NRG | 78c | 634.29$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.42 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked NRG | 78c | 584.18$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…d902backed NRG | 72c | 575.51$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.44 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed NRG | 77c | 543.51$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 531 | 59.1%314 W · 217 L | +41.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb46…ed08backed Team Envy | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed NRG | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed NRG | 46c | 462.98$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.01 | 463 | 47.1%218 W · 245 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…05b6backed Team Envy | 23c | 456.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…d11ebacked Team Envy | 34c | 416.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked NRG | 79c | 409.74$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.66 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed NRG | 76c | 400$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 214 | 57%122 W · 92 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0181…9b5fbacked Team Envy | 17c | 399.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Envy | 25c | 379.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Envy | 21c | 333.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 689 | 49.5%341 W · 348 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f4…148cbacked NRG | 70c | 328.21$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.01 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Team Envy | 18c | 294.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 396 | 46%182 W · 214 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked NRG | 73c | 292.49$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e9…170bbacked Team Envy | 42c | 281.71$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed NRG | 74c | 259$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 811 | 34.9%283 W · 528 L | -60.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…9064backed NRG | 79c | 246.56$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea86…6fb4backed Team Envy | 21c | 196.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed NRG | 79c | 187$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked NRG | 76c | 180.54$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Team Envy | 13c | 151.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team Envy | 21c | 145.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 930 | 49.4%459 W · 471 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked NRG | 71c | 125.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked NRG | 76c | 123$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Team Envy | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…9339backed Team Envy | 21c | 109.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Envy | 33c | 108.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Envy | 16c | 102.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…70a2backed Team Envy | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked NRG | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 385 | 48.6%187 W · 198 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…4537backed Team Envy | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked NRG | 62c | 99.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 351 | 42.5%149 W · 202 L | -14.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…f4f8backed Team Envy | 16c | 96.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed NRG | 77c | 96.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 443 | 42%186 W · 257 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed NRG | 77c | 88.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Team Envy | 20c | 88.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 196 | 56.6%111 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…c465backed NRG | 73c | 87.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 653 | 47.3%309 W · 344 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Envy | 25c | 83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Team Envy | 35c | 76.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked NRG | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 556 | 37.6%209 W · 347 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…5df6backed NRG | 79c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked Team Envy | 21c | 71.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 519 | 48.4%251 W · 268 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d51…71a5backed Team Envy | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Envy | 26c | 71.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 407 | 31.7%129 W · 278 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed NRG | 80c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed NRG | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…6f23backed Team Envy | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92df…7a08backed NRG | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…776fbacked Team Envy | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked NRG | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 389 | 50.6%197 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked NRG | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 785 | 62.8%493 W · 292 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked NRG | 79c | 42.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…e597backed Team Envy | 29c | 41.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…9f0cbacked Team Envy | 27c | 38.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Team Envy | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b7…5f6bbacked NRG | 70c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed NRG | 69c | 24.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec7…4a76backed NRG | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed NRG | 73c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 391 | 66%258 W · 133 L | +24.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed NRG | 79c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Team Envy vs NRG - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Team Envy (+1.5)NRG won
- Valorant: Team Envy vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group AlphaNRG won
- Valorant: Team Envy vs NRG - Map 1 WinnerNRG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.