Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Tottenham end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96d52f57f3934c70bc228f389bb48f2f78d8c790c7e67e45bd45d3e006f5eab5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 17c | 11,627$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976.59 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Yes | 19c | 5,269$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1edcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,424$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked No | 78c | 1,071$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.57 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 16c | 688$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 34c | 570$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 280 | 70%196 W · 84 L | +49.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3025…fccdbacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 3c | 545$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 19c | 526.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 525.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 16c | 313.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…c128backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Yes | 18c | 278.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…c206backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…070fbacked Yes | 17c | 262.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Yes | 15c | 200.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 17c | 191.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…b31ebacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f50…214dbacked Yes | 19c | 131.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…a328backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 15c | 129.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 75c | 126.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 18c | 122.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 18c | 116.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…cd31backed Yes | 17c | 115.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0920…19a4backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 17c | 110.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…24abbacked Yes | 23c | 95.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes | 34c | 92.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 66c | 92.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ba…1ad8backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 70.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed Yes | 18c | 69.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 109 | 32.1%35 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…b3c3backed Yes | 17c | 62.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Tottenham end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-15?Yes won
- Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.