Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96e7eb5b4ff5ec0e44140f3dfc0093d8a3f307e8d716babe0708c33586f16742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 625.59$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 317.38$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 262.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 63c | 246.29$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 245.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 206.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 174$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 169.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 54c | 166.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 148$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 141.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 27c | 141.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 139.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 55c | 136.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 130.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.53 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 125$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 62c | 119.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 116.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 75c | 115.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 112.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 85.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 83.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 68.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 66.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 62.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 61.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 58.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 58.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c30abacked Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 62c | 54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 50.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 35c | 36.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes | 30c | 36.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 35.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 31.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 29.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 38c | 28.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 78c | 27.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 52c | 26.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 22.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 72c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 13.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 79c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.