Premier League · resolved market
Derby County FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97077c17812cfbbaf3a72f0d1fd1318367a3fcd33329857cd65fd8b329436962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 6,752$3,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,413.47 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 52c | 3,780$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.4 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 2,264$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.15 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 53c | 919.99$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…d3dcbacked Over | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 701$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.79 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 55c | 677.9$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.06 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 51c | 581$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.87 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 564.64$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.42 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 57c | 563$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.11 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 54c | 554.54$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.54 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 48c | 487.88$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.88 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 52c | 422.17$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.53 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 55c | 366$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 359.72$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.11 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 74c | 244.35$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 55c | 218$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…5696backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 50c | 201.92$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Over | 50c | 200.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 55c | 197.09$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 177 | 45.2%80 W · 97 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 51c | 177$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 53c | 169.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 161.26$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…ed5cbacked Over | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 133.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Under | 44c | 117.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 52c | 101.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 46c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 322 | 55.9%180 W · 142 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 36c | 81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 43c | 78.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 46c | 74.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 383 | 58.2%223 W · 160 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…47debacked Under | 54c | 58.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…f56fbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Under | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 60c | 41.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…7e29backed Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…12a8backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f38…4ddbbacked Over | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 255 | 60%153 W · 102 L | +18.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…67a5backed Under | 59c | 29.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Under | 50c | 27.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 54c | 26.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Under | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…cf16backed Over | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derby County FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Derby County FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Derby County FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.