Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tristan Schoolkate
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97be97b80d75f672fbb1249cb2896badcc1b00ec686c33988e8c93cedd13d5b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Schoolkateof Sonego, Schoolkate
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sonego | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…75efbacked Schoolkate | 67c | 7,481$4,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.04 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Sonego | 72c | 7,000$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,040 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Sonego | 36c | 3,177$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.15 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…7260backed Sonego | 72c | 1,388$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Sonego | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Schoolkate | 28c | 1,200$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Schoolkate | 27c | 930.92$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.49 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Schoolkate | 69c | 654.78$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.78 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Schoolkate | 50c | 650$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Sonego | 39c | 575.91$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.8 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Sonego | 26c | 509.58$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Sonego | 60c | 501.42$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Sonego | 53c | 488.89$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.11 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Schoolkate | 17c | 481.34$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.49 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sonego | 42c | 439.05$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.97 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Schoolkate | 49c | 406$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Schoolkate | 48c | 370$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.2 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Sonego | 65c | 365.26$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Sonego | 49c | 362.15$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Schoolkate | 44c | 332.09$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.26 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Schoolkate | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Schoolkate | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sonego | 49c | 292$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Sonego | 62c | 242.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Schoolkate | 50c | 235$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Schoolkate | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Sonego | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Sonego | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Schoolkate | 27c | 171.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Schoolkate | 73c | 155.29$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…5897backed Sonego | 70c | 142.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Sonego | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Schoolkate | 52c | 134.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Sonego | 73c | 132.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Schoolkate | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…df6fbacked Sonego | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Schoolkate | 31c | 75.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Schoolkate | 52c | 73.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Schoolkate | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Schoolkate | 29c | 68.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Schoolkate | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Sonego | 78c | 64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…3699backed Sonego | 72c | 55.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Sonego | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Sonego | 58c | 51.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bf…baecbacked Sonego | 72c | 30.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4555…7209backed Sonego | 72c | 29.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…fedebacked Sonego | 72c | 28.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Sonego | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Sonego | 51c | 23.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Sonego | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f1e4backed Sonego | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.