Other European Leagues · resolved market
Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9820fd9872441b111a683a161c1128ce0a695f9e9e1e88733aac68bdee60d364
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 6,979$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.06 | 5,677 | 42%2,382 W · 3,295 L | +74.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 5c | 3,645$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.32 | 2,123 | 35.5%754 W · 1,369 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 42c | 2,268$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.5 | 2,103 | 36.6%770 W · 1,333 L | -27.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 63c | 1,963$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.12 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 55c | 1,833$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.89 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…101dbacked Over | 29c | 999.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 5c | 850$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 742 | 33.6%249 W · 493 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 39c | 655.19$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.45 | 942 | 44.6%420 W · 522 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 54c | 365.39$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.36 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 52c | 287.54$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.09 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 72c | 268.65$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 1,288 | 39.4%507 W · 781 L | -33.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 40c | 251$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 56c | 223.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 191.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 2,729 | 35.8%978 W · 1,751 L | -13.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 10c | 169.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 227 | 53.7%122 W · 105 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 80c | 78.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Under | 79c | 78.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 78c | 61.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 191 | 61.3%117 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 31c | 59.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 877 | 60.5%531 W · 346 L | +92.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 59.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 2,316 | 42.8%991 W · 1,325 L | -41.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…0ac8backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 51c | 38.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5this page
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 0.5Over won
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5Over won
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 5.5Under won
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: Rio Ave FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: Sporting CP O/U 0.5Over won
- Rio Ave FC vs. Sporting CP: Sporting CP O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: Rio Ave FC (-2.5)Sporting CP won
- Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)Sporting CP won
- Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)Sporting CP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.