MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9834a3eafd8fd8f71fa98408be99143e1bfe73ee0a5f3a142826eaa13f9646bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.85 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 2,988$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 1,708$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.49 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…7c09backed Atlanta Braves | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 449.57$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 398.5$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 16c | 312.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…7c94backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 131.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 33.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e32…0502backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 23.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Atlanta Braves | 64c | 22.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 21.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-6.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.