MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7287de62be45070efd8b276bd05699aa113448d0aef476240499fc155a6cfcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf35a…ce87backed Under | 1c | 6,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 1,144$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 60c | 989.02$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.61 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 76c | 683.16$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.96 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 71c | 559.54$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.48 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 38c | 349.24$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 24c | 304.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…c60dbacked Under | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9947…925dbacked Over | 63c | 248.85$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 32c | 180.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd6…4e4dbacked Under | 24c | 148.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 45c | 141.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 29c | 76.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 23c | 66.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df2…d472backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…8636backed Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 26c | 40.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed Under | 39c | 38.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 65c | 25.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 70c | 22.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…0ad1backed Over | 67c | 17.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 75c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-6.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.