MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74830232fa0d397174f8b5c323530f67ac3fb71207092f8ebdf98121d7e0c53f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 20c | 861.05$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.21 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 17c | 615.23$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.51 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 24c | 228$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 17c | 213.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 18c | 178.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe12c…e47ebacked Under | 73c | 103$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 71c | 102$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 17c | 69.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 19c | 57.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 57.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 79c | 55.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 74c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…96ecbacked Under | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…c072backed Under | 72c | 34.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…3732backed Under | 72c | 34.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…8cccbacked Under | 72c | 33.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccb…d817backed Under | 72c | 33.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 63c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…18b0backed Under | 72c | 32.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…8ebebacked Under | 72c | 32.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f46…9f54backed Under | 72c | 32.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…8698backed Under | 72c | 31.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…a57cbacked Under | 72c | 30.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…f5d9backed Under | 72c | 30.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x862c…72a1backed Under | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…6756backed Under | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…8000backed Under | 72c | 29.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…7fbcbacked Under | 72c | 29.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…ae3cbacked Under | 73c | 29.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…3dbabacked Under | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…6365backed Under | 72c | 28.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5c…0380backed Under | 72c | 28.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…f9fbbacked Under | 72c | 28.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…8ff5backed Under | 72c | 28.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…b036backed Under | 73c | 28.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…5069backed Under | 73c | 28.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa2…60b9backed Under | 72c | 27.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…23fabacked Under | 72c | 27.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…3261backed Under | 72c | 27.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc52…5bd3backed Under | 72c | 27.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…575abacked Under | 72c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…c98abacked Under | 72c | 27.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…74f1backed Under | 72c | 26.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…bed7backed Under | 72c | 25.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…65bbbacked Under | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…f6dcbacked Under | 72c | 25.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6f…44e9backed Under | 72c | 25.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ab…6435backed Under | 72c | 23.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…7347backed Under | 73c | 22.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Over | 59c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 76c | 20.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-6.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.