Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98a0ef21c8aed996bf8b5121ec356df346ae0209781d453530c1b5fdee6bb2d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,961 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 28,894$7,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,980.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd29…77aebacked Over | 47c | 18,708$8,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,915.22 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59e8…c5e8backed Over | 80c | 17,286$13,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,457.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 53c | 15,000$7,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,950 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Over | 73c | 3,104$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 13c | 2,730$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 74c | 1,599$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.74 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 22c | 1,125$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.18 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 11c | 1,009$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ec9ebacked Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Over | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 78c | 913$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.14 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 14c | 715.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.29 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 76c | 700$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30c9…28f4backed Over | 77c | 698.7$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 440$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.74 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 31c | 402.6$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 75c | 401.31$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 6c | 386.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 24c | 360.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 14c | 360$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 27c | 269.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 53c | 231.02$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.44 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 47c | 196.92$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 40c | 188.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 12c | 180$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 17c | 178$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Under | 20c | 177.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 8c | 152.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd985…1125backed Under | 53c | 151.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 80c | 151.18$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 31c | 131.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…9827backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Over | 80c | 77.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Over | 80c | 75.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…25e4backed Under | 21c | 63.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 58c | 56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 29c | 55.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed Over | 74c | 53.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…955bbacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Over | 27c | 49.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Over | 62c | 23.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 49c | 21.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Over | 69c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe628…0024backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-2.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.