TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Sinja Kraus vs Storm Hunter

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Storm Hunterof Sinja Kraus, Storm Hunter
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,279
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,523

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,279 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde9f…d43cbacked Storm Hunter66c18,318$12,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,206.696,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed Sinja Kraus0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20420%0 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6bfb…9c40backed Sinja Kraus20c9,187$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.666448.4%31 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Sinja Kraus49c6,977$3,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,400.9843051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Storm Hunter50c6,008$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,006.382,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Sinja Kraus38c5,407$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.681,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82a…a759backed Sinja Kraus49c4,648$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.4833955.2%187 W · 152 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Storm Hunter51c4,585$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.7126545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Storm Hunter51c2,760$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.291,98046.2%915 W · 1,065 L-1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Sinja Kraus26c2,583$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.762,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab9…5b82backed Sinja Kraus22c2,272$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009135.2%32 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Storm Hunter62c2,097$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.7720847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Storm Hunter77c2,076$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.0881349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed Sinja Kraus38c1,309$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.334045%18 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Sinja Kraus51c1,200$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick55cpaid-67.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Storm Hunter79c1,190$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.022,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Sinja Kraus50c1,128$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.831753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Storm Hunter50c1,017$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.587251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4720…007bbacked Sinja Kraus24c950$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2309250%46 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sinja Kraus45c850$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.56,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Sinja Kraus59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50099139.9%395 W · 596 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cee…3f91backed Sinja Kraus25c806.36$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.29824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Sinja Kraus44c667.75$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.1327936.2%101 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Sinja Kraus42c658.48$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.14,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Sinja Kraus47c652.53$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.6953058.1%308 W · 222 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Sinja Kraus38c558$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.0438133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd205…e7fbbacked Sinja Kraus19c513.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031039.4%122 W · 188 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb6a…dd64backed Storm Hunter76c402.06$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.491163.6%7 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick73cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Sinja Kraus50c383.25$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.355641.2%229 W · 327 L-2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Sinja Kraus47c376.01$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.31,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Storm Hunter51c352.94$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9443448.4%210 W · 224 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Sinja Kraus47c347$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.531,02933.5%345 W · 684 L-3.7wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58dc…59e4backed Sinja Kraus44c340.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506639.4%26 W · 40 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Sinja Kraus52c334.88$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17529637.5%111 W · 185 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Sinja Kraus55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16521346.5%99 W · 114 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sinja Kraus18c230.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.698,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Storm Hunter55c218.18$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Sinja Kraus25c216$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5413923.7%33 W · 106 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Storm Hunter57c211.16$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1694549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Sinja Kraus48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Storm Hunter64c205.58$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6361953.3%330 W · 289 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Storm Hunter73c205.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4884963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Sinja Kraus24c204.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027935.8%100 W · 179 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Storm Hunter49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10248552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Storm Hunter53c198.11$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1119653.6%105 W · 91 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df4…4eacbacked Storm Hunter51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.085354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Sinja Kraus47c195$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5999044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Sinja Kraus46c190.38$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.581,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Sinja Kraus47c188.67$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6742046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Sinja Kraus46c184$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.641,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Storm Hunter55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.829958.6%58 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Sinja Kraus25c180.69$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7468026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Sinja Kraus50c175.74$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.543242.4%183 W · 249 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Sinja Kraus46c160$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.473745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Sinja Kraus53c155$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9934744.4%154 W · 193 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Sinja Kraus51c143$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9137342.6%159 W · 214 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Storm Hunter49c140.31$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9540744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Storm Hunter49c138.48$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0995846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Sinja Kraus31c132.77$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.553,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xdf08…dea4backed Sinja Kraus45c125$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565242.3%22 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Sinja Kraus54c120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.771,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Storm Hunter51c119$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3129461.9%182 W · 112 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Sinja Kraus9c115.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.613417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Storm Hunter55c109.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc63d…a59bbacked Storm Hunter55c108.18$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.183836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Storm Hunter48c104.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.162,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Storm Hunter52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4834154.3%185 W · 156 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Storm Hunter49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511,02257.8%591 W · 431 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Sinja Kraus51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5124547.8%117 W · 128 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Sinja Kraus49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4946932%150 W · 319 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Storm Hunter49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5126247.7%125 W · 137 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Storm Hunter53c99.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4949142.8%210 W · 281 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Storm Hunter63c98.06$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.923,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Storm Hunter50c94.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.681,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Sinja Kraus54c92.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5031643%136 W · 180 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Storm Hunter72c91.74$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.397,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1963…8122backed Sinja Kraus57c88.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504548.9%22 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Storm Hunter51c85$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.653,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f49…b482backed Storm Hunter49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.632653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf01e…aed4backed Storm Hunter49c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.88853.4%47 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Sinja Kraus52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4032246.9%151 W · 171 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Storm Hunter53c75.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3315343.8%67 W · 86 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Storm Hunter63c70$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.947057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Sinja Kraus60c68$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5597046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Sinja Kraus38c68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.569249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Storm Hunter47c66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.981,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Sinja Kraus38c52.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.032,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed Storm Hunter48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0821847.2%103 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Storm Hunter55c51.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2381047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f6…a5eebacked Sinja Kraus45c51.11$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2359954.9%329 W · 270 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Storm Hunter49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0260661.2%371 W · 235 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Storm Hunter51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0243353.6%232 W · 201 L+32.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Storm Hunter51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0215751%80 W · 77 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf3a…5597backed Storm Hunter71c48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.762646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3108…8a52backed Sinja Kraus54c43.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.446344.4%28 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Storm Hunter51c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5897644.6%435 W · 541 L-2.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Storm Hunter49c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.658438.2%223 W · 361 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Sinja Kraus53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.295742.1%403 W · 554 L-24.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Storm Hunter51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2264358.8%378 W · 265 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7353…a4f0backed Storm Hunter51c39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1154050.4%272 W · 268 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.