TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Metizport (BO1) - BC Game Masters Championship Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Betclic Apogee Esportsof Betclic Apogee Esports, Metizport
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,683 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b59…3aa6backed Betclic Apogee Esports40c6,700$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,019.9584958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Metizport60c4,694$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,804.425,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Betclic Apogee Esports41c2,346$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.7327552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed Metizport60c1,812$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.958540%34 W · 51 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Metizport59c1,766$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.872,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd652…6354backed Betclic Apogee Esports42c1,332$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.0513757.7%79 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Betclic Apogee Esports41c851.13$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.1764854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Betclic Apogee Esports64c800$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.622754.2%123 W · 104 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Betclic Apogee Esports55c763$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.943,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Betclic Apogee Esports70c755$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.224,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed Metizport60c728.33$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43719245.8%88 W · 104 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23b4…7056backed Metizport38c650.46$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.173441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Metizport59c625$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.1311151.4%57 W · 54 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd12…7091backed Metizport57c611.98$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.832941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked Betclic Apogee Esports40c583.99$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.3920643.7%90 W · 116 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe337…1f6fbacked Metizport58c578.69$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.9226341.1%108 W · 155 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Metizport61c563.26$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.5927940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Metizport59c544.46$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.232,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Metizport59c527.29$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.6528943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Betclic Apogee Esports41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2958847.7%42 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Metizport58c499.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.995944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Betclic Apogee Esports41c499.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.9910352.4%54 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Metizport28c486.7$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.45,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Betclic Apogee Esports43c483.14$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.85,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83bb…868cbacked Metizport60c426.22$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Metizport39c410.59$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1825634.4%88 W · 168 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Betclic Apogee Esports78c407.85$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.446,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed Metizport60c404.08$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.5538312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Betclic Apogee Esports40c380$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2287736.4%28 W · 49 L-9.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Betclic Apogee Esports41c354$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0233627.7%93 W · 243 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Metizport58c344.28$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020952.6%110 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bed…66aebacked Metizport60c343.34$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Metizport59c339.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20048562.7%304 W · 181 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Betclic Apogee Esports54c339$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9493261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Metizport53c337.66$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.861,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Metizport59c333.14$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5561034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Metizport37c311.35$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2743237.7%163 W · 269 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Betclic Apogee Esports41c303.96$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.621,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Betclic Apogee Esports42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1744551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Metizport58c296.26$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8331241.3%129 W · 183 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Metizport48c294.32$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2766436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked Metizport60c280$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16812343.9%54 W · 69 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Metizport48c269.54$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.383,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Betclic Apogee Esports41c212.93$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9315351%78 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…279bbacked Betclic Apogee Esports48c203.65$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.919935.2%70 W · 129 L-18.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-18.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Betclic Apogee Esports68c183.76$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.444,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Betclic Apogee Esports71c173.49$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.194,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7268…7e00backed Metizport59c170.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc104…5faabacked Metizport28c166.25$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.078020%16 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Betclic Apogee Esports57c158.47$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.364,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d1…a9f7backed Metizport37c158$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.548639.5%34 W · 52 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Metizport45c157.28$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.782,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aae…0da3backed Metizport60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9014255.6%79 W · 63 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc65d…4ccabacked Metizport57c143.55$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.44650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e2…2ed0backed Betclic Apogee Esports45c123.78$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7844654.9%245 W · 201 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e6f…7248backed Metizport59c122.69$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.393737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Metizport59c121.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9774054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0241…fd36backed Metizport61c119.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.240155.1%221 W · 180 L+1.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Betclic Apogee Esports46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.71,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Metizport59c106$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1924641.9%103 W · 143 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae8e…08f9backed Betclic Apogee Esports39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6137050.5%187 W · 183 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Metizport20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8966446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c09…f399backed Metizport61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Betclic Apogee Esports59c97.15$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.835,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51d5…41b8backed Betclic Apogee Esports66c94.9$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.282937.9%11 W · 18 L-5.7wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-39%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Metizport57c94.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.689248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d29…8264backed Metizport59c90.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534346.5%20 W · 23 L-6.5wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-25.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Betclic Apogee Esports49c90.21$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2180740.3%325 W · 482 L-3.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Betclic Apogee Esports41c87.97$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.264,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef2b…70efbacked Metizport59c84.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012564.8%81 W · 44 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0335…6829backed Betclic Apogee Esports43c81.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.45945.8%27 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f6…af63backed Metizport26c81.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.871735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Betclic Apogee Esports40c69.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9350056.6%283 W · 217 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Metizport35c64.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8491743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c27…21a9backed Metizport61c61.21$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3423158.4%135 W · 96 L-1.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Betclic Apogee Esports40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3665548.9%320 W · 335 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe00f…0ae8backed Metizport59c59.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.22334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Metizport61c59.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1233657.1%192 W · 144 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed Metizport60c57.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5183856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14c8…c192backed Betclic Apogee Esports40c55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3310052%52 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee1d…860ebacked Metizport59c51.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.691952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…3518backed Metizport61c45.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.616253.2%33 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Metizport56c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.061,84847.6%879 W · 969 L-55.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf9…3a59backed Betclic Apogee Esports42c45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.15856.9%33 W · 25 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+24.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Metizport51c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.163,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac04…e1e6backed Metizport59c43.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Metizport58c42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3621949.8%109 W · 110 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb3d…58f5backed Metizport60c40.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9437855.3%209 W · 169 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x692c…aadebacked Betclic Apogee Esports41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.595147.1%24 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Betclic Apogee Esports42c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.32,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd95d…2ab5backed Metizport58c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.332544.3%144 W · 181 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76d4…c512backed Metizport58c32.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.676232.3%20 W · 42 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1040…16cbbacked Metizport64c29.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Metizport40c28.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.375973%18 W · 579 L-221.0wins-0.37per pick40cpaid-90.7%equal weight11-0.36 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked Betclic Apogee Esports49c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2840652.2%212 W · 194 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ca3…9c4abacked Betclic Apogee Esports42c26.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.651346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…a58fbacked Betclic Apogee Esports43c26.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.911233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d5f…1ea7backed Betclic Apogee Esports44c26.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.516258.1%36 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Metizport58c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Metizport59c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.752,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.