TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1winof 1win, OG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$252,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$331,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67bb…b6efbacked 1win78c25,567$19,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,569.1528159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed OG12c13,045$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.771143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked OG13c11,636$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.031,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed OG0c10,355$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3640014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked OG21c8,668$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8291,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed OG24c8,333$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.5456955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked OG22c5,515$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.2550347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked OG21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked OG15c4,128$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.7416547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed OG25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00029348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed 1win79c3,775$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.0435062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed 1win79c3,300$2,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69379959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe47d…7967backed OG9c3,286$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.112040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed OG19c3,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57041351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked OG22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66035951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed OG1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30712.8%2 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked 1win78c3,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked OG12c2,991$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.9189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed OG23c2,750$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed OG20c2,737$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.531,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed OG20c2,694$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.5431248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked OG25c2,614$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.7342145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed 1win77c2,590$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.441,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked OG22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4407936.7%29 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed OG1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked OG25c1,821$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.1319547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked OG23c1,705$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.8431936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed OG8c1,690$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6745750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed OG25c1,662$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.8636248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed OG19c1,463$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.4688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed 1win74c1,440$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.7950353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed OG20c1,381$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.196527.7%18 W · 47 L-9.9wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed OG21c1,329$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27936343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked 1win78c1,274$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.9448053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OG22c1,250$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2751,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed 1win80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25011359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed OG9c1,212$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0811654.3%63 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked OG22c1,156$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5925752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 1win75c1,140$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.871,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed OG22c1,086$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.5947646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked OG3c1,042$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.261,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb9…1d15backed OG24c1,038$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.069535.8%34 W · 61 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked OG4c1,021$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.537811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed OG22c1,002$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed 1win78c1,000$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22114646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd953…a9c0backed 1win80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2008958.4%52 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed OG22c999.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22018830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed OG21c998.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7917633.5%59 W · 117 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed 1win79c965.29$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.7160251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed OG25c954$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1235151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked 1win75c906.11$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.7758152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a53…dfefbacked 1win79c886.08$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.086149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed 1win80c876.94$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.9418356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked 1win80c800$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16427060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked OG9c792.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9743049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed OG22c787.68$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.291,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6478…c969backed OG9c782.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.42040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed OG15c730.99$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.120233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb4…da4fbacked 1win77c670.18$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.847566.7%50 W · 25 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed 1win79c632.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9114557.9%84 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed 1win78c632.46$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.1430357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked OG25c576.65$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8439550.1%198 W · 197 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x25d9…4d80backed OG5c574.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.741526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed 1win76c521.83$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.2429243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed 1win79c506.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3348054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed OG23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11513635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed 1win77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11537655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed 1win80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10034860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed 1win76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed 1win75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12535737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4455…8aa2backed OG21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked OG20c449.98$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9211733.3%39 W · 78 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cf2…423abacked OG24c424.08$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.53545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked OG16c418.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.461,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked 1win79c410.13$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1317251.2%88 W · 84 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed 1win75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10029550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b26…21e0backed 1win79c379.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7513464.9%87 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed OG3c373.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.811,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 1win76c359.17$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.411,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed OG21c357.14$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757445.9%34 W · 40 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed OG20c350$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed 1win75c340$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8553758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked 1win79c303.8$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.82864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed OG29c303.44$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8815147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed OG22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6618446.7%86 W · 98 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked OG11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3337018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked 1win79c299.98$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6388166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed 1win78c276.82$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.914025%10 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-61.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed 1win78c260.92$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6264744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb53…7b74backed 1win79c251.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.85271.2%37 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked OG5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked OG21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfeb…763ebacked OG31c235.48$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7311535.7%41 W · 74 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x399c…83f5backed OG20c222$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedfa…fd66backed 1win79c221.41$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.597055.7%39 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked OG20c220$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445940.7%24 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked OG20c219.16$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8324034.2%82 W · 158 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed OG7c208.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1243344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed OG21c204.76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked OG20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404025%10 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-25.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.