Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9996ba14a699d29370c9ac866d61e1dd3ff860b5a051bc8de6190a80c8efb7d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 80c | 7,416$5,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,913.77 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 2c | 901.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 12c | 833$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.04 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 629.15$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.99 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.99 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 14c | 572$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.24 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed No | 56c | 452.5$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 32c | 442.92$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 26c | 343.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 19c | 323.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.25 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 7c | 313.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 202.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.03 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 17c | 185.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 180.15$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 12c | 174.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.68 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 167.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 167.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 29c | 164.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 62c | 148.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 39c | 148.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 148.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 68c | 142.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 129.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 117.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 108.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 19c | 107.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 36c | 94.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 94.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccb…5b42backed Yes | 23c | 92.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 71c | 91.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 14c | 84.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 77.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 74.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 73c | 74.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 58c | 74.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 72.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 16c | 65.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 29c | 64.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 22c | 63.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 59.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 57.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 45c | 54.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 49.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 21c | 49.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 44.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 28c | 44.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fe…4097backed Yes | 77c | 43.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 45c | 41.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 51c | 41.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 40.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 57c | 38.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 36.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 55c | 33.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda36…26f5backed Yes | 75c | 33.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 77c | 32.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 77c | 31.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 62c | 29.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed No | 55c | 27.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 75c | 21.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…8297backed Yes | 75c | 18.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 79c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa487…ce6abacked Yes | 77c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.