Tennis · resolved market
Sion: Luca Wiedenmann vs Thiago Cigarran
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99c8460d338b3400eda30edf3364b28ca8f2b40fb4f0863c76a23a2af90ff3ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thiago Cigarranof Luca Wiedenmann, Thiago Cigarran
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2978…b511backed Thiago Cigarran | 14c | 10,588$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,118.42 | 423 | 32.4%137 W · 286 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Luca Wiedenmann | 49c | 7,450$3,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,683.11 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…8950backed Thiago Cigarran | 19c | 5,000$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,058.17 | 392 | 43.4%170 W · 222 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Luca Wiedenmann | 31c | 3,636$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.53 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Luca Wiedenmann | 48c | 2,930$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.12 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Thiago Cigarran | 62c | 1,892$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.17 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Thiago Cigarran | 15c | 1,353$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.05 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Luca Wiedenmann | 31c | 1,296$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.08 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Thiago Cigarran | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Thiago Cigarran | 18c | 999.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.98 | 488 | 42%205 W · 283 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Luca Wiedenmann | 78c | 763.27$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.35 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Luca Wiedenmann | 50c | 697.01$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.33 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…40d3backed Thiago Cigarran | 17c | 615$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.46 | 483 | 31.1%150 W · 333 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…c4ebbacked Thiago Cigarran | 12c | 574.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.99 | 88 | 10.2%9 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Luca Wiedenmann | 9c | 512.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 38c | 489.47$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.47 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Luca Wiedenmann | 27c | 444.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Thiago Cigarran | 16c | 350$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.42 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Luca Wiedenmann | 29c | 335$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…fbb3backed Thiago Cigarran | 19c | 314.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.47 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Luca Wiedenmann | 34c | 306.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.09 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Thiago Cigarran | 17c | 266.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.43 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Luca Wiedenmann | 48c | 250.86$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.17 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Luca Wiedenmann | 53c | 218.82$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Thiago Cigarran | 70c | 211$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Luca Wiedenmann | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 536 | 44.8%240 W · 296 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Thiago Cigarran | 16c | 160.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.91 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Luca Wiedenmann | 58c | 159.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Thiago Cigarran | 19c | 149.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.37 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Luca Wiedenmann | 79c | 113.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 232 | 56.5%131 W · 101 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Thiago Cigarran | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Thiago Cigarran | 75c | 98.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Thiago Cigarran | 22c | 98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Thiago Cigarran | 40c | 96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 355 | 58.6%208 W · 147 L | +19.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Thiago Cigarran | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Luca Wiedenmann | 60c | 78.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…0af9backed Thiago Cigarran | 19c | 78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 128 | 39.1%50 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…e104backed Thiago Cigarran | 19c | 78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…f972backed Thiago Cigarran | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Luca Wiedenmann | 79c | 75.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Thiago Cigarran | 15c | 74.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…3798backed Luca Wiedenmann | 32c | 74.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Thiago Cigarran | 26c | 73.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Thiago Cigarran | 19c | 72.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Luca Wiedenmann | 22c | 65.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Thiago Cigarran | 21c | 62.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Luca Wiedenmann | 74c | 62.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Luca Wiedenmann | 75c | 58.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 528 | 47%248 W · 280 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Luca Wiedenmann | 58c | 56.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Thiago Cigarran | 45c | 52.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Thiago Cigarran | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Thiago Cigarran | 59c | 47.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…e84cbacked Luca Wiedenmann | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 302 | 68.9%208 W · 94 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x877f…8f3bbacked Luca Wiedenmann | 75c | 46.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Thiago Cigarran | 25c | 41.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 299 | 45.8%137 W · 162 L | +20.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Luca Wiedenmann | 37c | 35.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 245 | 46.5%114 W · 131 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Luca Wiedenmann | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Luca Wiedenmann | 75c | 26.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 425 | 63.3%269 W · 156 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Luca Wiedenmann | 75c | 23.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Luca Wiedenmann | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…eb9dbacked Luca Wiedenmann | 80c | 18.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.