Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a6d27f69b4b508bbbaccabaf13ae39f5634ca7ce45422d3410c69f235c48eb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x540e…df8dbacked No | 67c | 393.36$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…12e7backed Yes | 50c | 391.67$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 288.83$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 40c | 243.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 923 | 29.1%269 W · 654 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 38c | 230.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 551 | 25.2%139 W · 412 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 186$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 176.62$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 61c | 157.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 145.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 38c | 136.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 29c | 123.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 183 | 24%44 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 119.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 41c | 118.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 34c | 110.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 381 | 31%118 W · 263 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 107.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…4bf0backed Yes | 37c | 102.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 102$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 39c | 100.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…bdeabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 244 | 45.1%110 W · 134 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 99.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 59c | 95.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 13c | 93.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 38c | 89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 63c | 87.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…c63cbacked Yes | 37c | 87.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…42cabacked Yes | 37c | 87.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 76.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed No | 66c | 75.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 62c | 70.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 70.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed Yes | 38c | 66.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 61.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 60.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 37c | 56.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 880 | 48%422 W · 458 L | +41.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…7a7dbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 56c | 41.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…9270backed Yes | 36c | 41.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c56…3ba4backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 53c | 39.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 37.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 31c | 36.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 57c | 35.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 69c | 35.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 34c | 34.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 33.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd5…f702backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 62c | 26.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 60c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 55c | 26.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc425…2f0abacked Yes | 40c | 25.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788a…db1fbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 23.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…c699backed Yes | 45c | 22.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…e6d4backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 61c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.