Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7fc9e65adc7be2ff02956885fc8ba097aedf911a6bacabb040e975f50818b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 388.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.32 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 35c | 279.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.8 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 209.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 208.4$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked No | 59c | 150$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 578 | 27.9%161 W · 417 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 36c | 144.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked No | 65c | 140$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 99 | 34.3%34 W · 65 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 139.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 62c | 135.74$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 65c | 135.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 551 | 25.2%139 W · 412 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Yes | 32c | 124.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 119.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 104.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 997 | 37.8%377 W · 620 L | +79.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed No | 64c | 99.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 67c | 92.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 33c | 91.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 31c | 87.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 84.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 73.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 37c | 72.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 71.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 65c | 71.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 343 | 34.4%118 W · 225 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 58c | 70.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 36c | 70.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +9.3wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 68.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 60.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 57c | 53.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 53.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 24c | 52.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 58c | 51.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 30c | 49.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 47.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes | 63c | 47.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 45.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 44.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 57c | 44.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed No | 61c | 44.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 66c | 44.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 44c | 41.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked No | 58c | 40.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 35c | 39.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 67c | 39.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 36c | 38.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 38.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 35.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 33.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 66c | 30.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 381 | 31%118 W · 263 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c56…3ba4backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 58c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 22.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,128 | 55.4%625 W · 503 L | -30.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 316 | 57.6%182 W · 134 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…dd1dbacked No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 64c | 16.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -22.0wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 23-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 77c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.