MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ab5b49e5c180c1e874b5ab2f0d2176d4cdc25b94a274724769db48f71704041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 69c | 9,271$6,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 4,522$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 1,981$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.53 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 1,673$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.85 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 1,159$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 1,000$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.06 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 827.93$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.76 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 799$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 580.52$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.51 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…0db4backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 382.86$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.89 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 352.02$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.39 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 318.32$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.32 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 209$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Baltimore Orioles | 15c | 205.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 199.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 175$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 128.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 115.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 102.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 95.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 95.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 92.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 90.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 89.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 77.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 68.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 68c | 53.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 50.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 49.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 44.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 27.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Chicago Cubs | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Chicago Cubs | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…cf67backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.