NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-18.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ade27ad7b00719cbcec6c2e560e291f99f9aad9897a0e5586f2b58fba6d95a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Clippers | 52c | 19,923$10,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,375.02 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…ad22backed Thunder | 48c | 10,228$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,278.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Thunder | 45c | 8,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,399.98 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…17a0backed Thunder | 46c | 6,133$2,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,311.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Clippers | 55c | 2,182$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Thunder | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clippers | 54c | 2,003$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Clippers | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 488 | 45.3%221 W · 267 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Clippers | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.98 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Thunder | 49c | 1,827$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.77 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 46c | 1,784$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 47c | 1,771$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.68 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers | 55c | 1,663$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.04 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Clippers | 55c | 648.4$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.62 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Clippers | 53c | 599.99$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.99 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3295…07afbacked Thunder | 46c | 472.41$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.1 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Clippers | 55c | 400.02$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…cad3backed Clippers | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Clippers | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Thunder | 44c | 357.14$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Clippers | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Clippers | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…bcdfbacked Clippers | 55c | 223.02$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Clippers | 55c | 217.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Clippers | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Thunder | 46c | 186$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Clippers | 54c | 181$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Thunder | 48c | 162.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Clippers | 66c | 151.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Thunder | 34c | 151.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Thunder | 48c | 147.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Clippers | 55c | 114.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Clippers | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 400 | 35.5%142 W · 258 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Clippers | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Thunder | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Thunder | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Thunder | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Thunder | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Thunder | 46c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Clippers | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Clippers | 74c | 34.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Thunder | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Clippers | 53c | 26.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Clippers | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…09dabacked Clippers | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Clippers | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Clippers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Clippers won
- Clippers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.