NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff1feb8a7d44b2ec271f1c77ca8ed560d24a530a90091afc3915eab958aab77e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Clippers | 47c | 28,675$13,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,477.25 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Thunder | 53c | 20,029$10,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,413.33 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers | 47c | 12,063$5,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,671.64 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder | 53c | 12,045$6,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,661.06 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…399fbacked Clippers | 47c | 10,636$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 53c | 6,663$3,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,131.61 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 53c | 4,739$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…894fbacked Clippers | 47c | 3,711$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Clippers | 47c | 2,800$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Thunder | 53c | 1,500$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.76 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…ceb7backed Thunder | 55c | 1,211$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Clippers | 47c | 792.45$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.45 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Thunder | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 48c | 697.8$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Clippers | 45c | 425.95$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.75 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Thunder | 52c | 385.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.88 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 53c | 306.32$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.97 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…3a3fbacked Clippers | 53c | 214.7$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Clippers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Clippers | 47c | 178.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c5…0ad1backed Thunder | 53c | 155$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Thunder | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Clippers | 50c | 46.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 139 | 45.3%63 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Clippers | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Thunder | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Thunder | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Thunder | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Clippers | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Clippers | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed Clippers | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…dfc0backed Thunder | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Clippers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Clippers won
- Clippers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.