NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x289140787330abc433e766bbe1ea23f41c607619fd942f1335bcdf418935add7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaceb…6f8ebacked Thunder | 54c | 3,750$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Clippers | 46c | 2,473$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.58 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Clippers | 2c | 1,800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Clippers | 3c | 1,699$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Clippers | 44c | 1,669$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed Clippers | 63c | 1,410$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.14 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 56c | 1,365$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Clippers | 9c | 1,333$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Thunder | 36c | 1,097$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…2f71backed Thunder | 60c | 816$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clippers | 46c | 809.88$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…8db6backed Clippers | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Clippers | 2c | 531.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…6cb6backed Thunder | 56c | 513.34$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.73 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Clippers | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers | 44c | 481.48$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.09 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…7bf8backed Clippers | 46c | 478$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.88 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Clippers | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114c…ff77backed Thunder | 44c | 419.98$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Clippers | 42c | 415.32$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.43 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Clippers | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Thunder | 53c | 348.79$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.51 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Clippers | 44c | 311$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.52 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…556cbacked Clippers | 56c | 304.44$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Clippers | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Clippers | 44c | 175$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Thunder | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Thunder | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Thunder | 60c | 167.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Thunder | 60c | 166.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Clippers | 44c | 163.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Clippers | 43c | 158.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Clippers | 46c | 141.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db5…4d00backed Clippers | 55c | 120.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Thunder | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Thunder | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…55eabacked Thunder | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Clippers | 41c | 96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Clippers | 43c | 94.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f7…eef5backed Thunder | 45c | 93.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 59c | 91.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Thunder | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Thunder | 49c | 71.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Thunder | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Thunder | 60c | 54.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Thunder | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Clippers | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Thunder | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Thunder | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Thunder | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Thunder | 58c | 48.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Clippers | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 50c | 42.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Clippers | 47c | 37.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…62f4backed Thunder | 59c | 35.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Clippers | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…beddbacked Clippers | 46c | 24.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Thunder | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Thunder | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,198 | 46.8%561 W · 637 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Thunder | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…19debacked Thunder | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…3fb7backed Thunder | 56c | 18.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Clippers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Clippers won
- Clippers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.