TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,947 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under55c3,158$1,746 inLost-$1,745.889,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Under54c1,118$609 inLost-$608.9626553.2%141 W · 124 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Over43c834.53$359 inWon+$475.6813951.1%71 W · 68 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under57c818.93$467 inLost-$466.796,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under54c600.71$324 inLost-$324.164,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under55c333.37$183 inLost-$183.354,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over45c300$135 inWon+$1653,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Over43c280$120 inWon+$159.645646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over47c212.77$100 inWon+$112.7752146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Over43c140$60 inWon+$79.856547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01f8…4656backed Over42c132.71$56 inWon+$76.47771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+110.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Over47c112.96$53 inWon+$59.8735843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over46c108.69$50 inWon+$58.692,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Over47c106.38$50 inWon+$56.3843447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ae…2103backed Under54c77.19$42 inLost-$41.684544.4%20 W · 25 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under55c71.27$39 inLost-$38.872,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Over44c68.18$30 inWon+$38.1829351.9%152 W · 141 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over57c58.87$34 inWon+$25.318,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb90…4d19backed Over47c49$23 inWon+$25.972673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+31.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf788…5ebbbacked Under56c47.99$27 inLost-$26.871957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfffb…5f95backed Under55c36.36$20 inLost-$2024150.2%121 W · 120 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Over49c25.51$12 inWon+$13.0136350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under56c24.18$14 inLost-$13.661,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.