CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b86c411857ef2532df3a5164d4ff91758bd7b870c77c1aca313def4d31e7858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARCREDof ARCRED, BASEMENT BOYS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b80…b3b2backed BASEMENT BOYS | 1c | 21,397$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…b1bebacked BASEMENT BOYS | 12c | 1,554$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 38c | 1,433$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.26 | 753 | 56.8%428 W · 325 L | +48.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed BASEMENT BOYS | 5c | 1,286$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…a843backed ARCRED | 65c | 1,212$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…5977backed ARCRED | 80c | 1,109$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.99 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 20c | 992$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…69d5backed ARCRED | 70c | 926.79$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…6b53backed BASEMENT BOYS | 33c | 891.78$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.63 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed BASEMENT BOYS | 38c | 652.83$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.47 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ARCRED | 69c | 581.88$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.54 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked ARCRED | 64c | 472.91$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.88 | 227 | 54.2%123 W · 104 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked BASEMENT BOYS | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 183 | 36.6%67 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 3c | 411.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed ARCRED | 12c | 401.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.13 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked ARCRED | 62c | 333.77$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed ARCRED | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +178.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ARCRED | 67c | 280.45$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…dd35backed ARCRED | 74c | 201.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked BASEMENT BOYS | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked ARCRED | 7c | 176.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.54 | 101 | 11.9%12 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed ARCRED | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 23c | 169.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 229 | 31.4%72 W · 157 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed BASEMENT BOYS | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed BASEMENT BOYS | 21c | 129.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed ARCRED | 64c | 126.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed ARCRED | 57c | 126.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…3e38backed BASEMENT BOYS | 35c | 115.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed BASEMENT BOYS | 38c | 104.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…08f5backed ARCRED | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 4cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…3549backed ARCRED | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked BASEMENT BOYS | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 789 | 63.8%503 W · 286 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c8…0551backed BASEMENT BOYS | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked ARCRED | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 172 | 46.5%80 W · 92 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…6efcbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 55c | 99.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d64…b4c0backed BASEMENT BOYS | 23c | 99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…3ba2backed BASEMENT BOYS | 59c | 84.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed BASEMENT BOYS | 28c | 77.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 202 | 43.6%88 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed BASEMENT BOYS | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed ARCRED | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +68%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed BASEMENT BOYS | 21c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 194 | 23.7%46 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4082…ce4bbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked ARCRED | 73c | 68.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 983 | 52.4%515 W · 468 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked ARCRED | 60c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 20c | 65.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed BASEMENT BOYS | 25c | 63.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 198 | 43.9%87 W · 111 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed ARCRED | 64c | 62.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | -15.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…b47fbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 56c | 62.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed BASEMENT BOYS | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed BASEMENT BOYS | 27c | 59.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…ed61backed BASEMENT BOYS | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53b2…a740backed ARCRED | 62c | 55.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed BASEMENT BOYS | 27c | 54.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…ddfabacked BASEMENT BOYS | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked ARCRED | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…ed8fbacked ARCRED | 60c | 47.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed BASEMENT BOYS | 25c | 46.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed BASEMENT BOYS | 29c | 46.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…c9b3backed BASEMENT BOYS | 49c | 45.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked ARCRED | 60c | 41.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c46…6a2abacked BASEMENT BOYS | 48c | 41.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6fccbacked ARCRED | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed ARCRED | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a30…34b1backed ARCRED | 76c | 31.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…b795backed ARCRED | 72c | 27.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…a830backed ARCRED | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…6abbbacked ARCRED | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 71cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…3617backed ARCRED | 61c | 24.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed ARCRED | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked ARCRED | 66c | 20.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…0ef8backed ARCRED | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed ARCRED | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5635…a4efbacked ARCRED | 71c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 1 WinnerBASEMENT BOYS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.