Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b8926a9004292f96ddf2fa96699157ddf65459caf70cc08f105cfb35e7e02a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 746.06$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.06 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 74c | 562.4$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.62 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 346.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 64c | 313.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 258.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 51c | 212.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 210.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed No | 51c | 206.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 38c | 200.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 187.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 168.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 163.73$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 27c | 153.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 36c | 120.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 46c | 119$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 116.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 68c | 115.2$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 113.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 47c | 112.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 111$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 23c | 106.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 51c | 97.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 82.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…3963backed Yes | 49c | 73.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 71.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 64.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 57c | 62.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 59.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 58.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 56c | 57.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…893cbacked No | 69c | 57.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 57.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 56c | 53.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 50c | 51.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 46.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 42.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 41.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 47c | 40.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 38.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 34c | 38.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 37.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 50c | 35.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 35.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 65c | 33.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…99b7backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 31.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 43c | 28.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 35c | 28.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 26.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 24.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 60c | 19.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 18.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.