TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,383
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,383 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes1c2,535$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.267934.2%27 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes34c1,538$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.8942036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes14c660.43$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4122945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c593.05$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No61c588.98$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.9538138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes42c526.24$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.341,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c488$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.474,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes26c384.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021829.4%64 W · 154 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No66c346$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.642,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes17c278.85$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6846626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes30c270$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.51,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes31c250.4$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4663538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10065043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes34c232.96$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.226533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9973…6e40backed Yes24c228.42$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.827040%28 W · 42 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes11c212.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.944,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No67c209$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.973,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7012629.4%37 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No67c181.63$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1481558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd351…b2d9backed Yes58c162.77$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.633240.6%13 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No69c152.78$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.264,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No27c140$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes33c137$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.932,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes57c135$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0527744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No68c121.44$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.481,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe630…ef20backed No75c118.21$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7525784.4%217 W · 40 L+30.3wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes74c112.52$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.265044%22 W · 28 L-12.1wins-0.24per pick68cpaid-32.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3885049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.518449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No65c98.96$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No74c96$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0449543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes36c95.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5546733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes27c93.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.121,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.134,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes33c78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.861,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No61c73.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.811,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No67c66$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.781,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf256…70ccbacked Yes34c62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c59.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.885,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.895,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.23,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.984,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No74c48.63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.642,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes61c43.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.787057.1%40 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked No68c42.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5242948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.63231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.22,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No63c38.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.194,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ebe…5b16backed No67c36.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No56c34.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.023,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52fe…c258backed Yes35c31.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No55c30.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.622,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.247738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes39c28.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.952,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa89…1510backed No67c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No44c25.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2527169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d17…32d8backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.213655.1%75 W · 61 L-13.4wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No58c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.586949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.153,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1189557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No67c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9226067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes69c21.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed No67c21.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1859144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No54c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.651,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.84,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.455261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.839768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.615961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.492761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.680962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x236e…fe7fbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61080%8 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+38.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d2f…b741backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick61cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced6…2dc1backed No67c17.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8228068.6%192 W · 88 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e4…1780backed No69c17.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.333271.9%23 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.