Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c099992d2bf7f416d4e07950689944bb9aae9cee7cdbff8add5c52c77d5d631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 12,523$9,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,811.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 19c | 2,233$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.2 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 20c | 1,519$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.35 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 20c | 1,499$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.91 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed Over | 25c | 1,111$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 79c | 689.2$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.22 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 55c | 560$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 27c | 375.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 359.26$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 77c | 280.51$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 21c | 279.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…99bbbacked Over | 25c | 252$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 31c | 183.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Over | 21c | 136$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 47c | 109.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 20c | 109$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…1bf2backed Over | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 19c | 80.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 35c | 68.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 31c | 64.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…e77bbacked Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…cf43backed Over | 21c | 48.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…f2cebacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…c603backed Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…f8e3backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 35.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…90b2backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 80c | 13.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.