Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c5304ed05cc4886a6b8cc4d64fbc6594f28bb504376639298c810910a18b737
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 31c | 620.58$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.78 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 38c | 526.16$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.39 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 28c | 441.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 63c | 318.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 259.99$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd85f…9d39backed Yes | 37c | 253.12$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 242.87$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 239.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…8334backed Yes | 24c | 187.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 33c | 186.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 67c | 160.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 146.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 73c | 119.65$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 34c | 111.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 95.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 28c | 94.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…e85ebacked Yes | 20c | 65.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 60.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 60.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 59.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 58.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 28c | 57.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 68c | 57.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…ab7dbacked No | 64c | 57.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 32c | 56.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 66c | 52.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed No | 71c | 51.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 61c | 48.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 74c | 41.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 27c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 33c | 39.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 34.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 30.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 21.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 68c | 20.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 79c | 20.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked No | 66c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 15.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 77c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.