Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4082bf5a6b18d93cc95039978c01bec70bf8a4da53fdd65b69c62b73f17bf8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 5c | 700.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 64c | 538.82$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.04 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 38c | 435.69$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 387.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 278.87$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 34c | 253.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 20c | 249.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 208$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 9c | 169.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 145.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 143.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 73c | 136.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 133.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…35fcbacked Yes | 41c | 123.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 115.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 60c | 112.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 34c | 83.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 37c | 82.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 74.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 66.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 64.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 53.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 48.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 46.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc2…dcdebacked Yes | 30c | 44.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 42.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 62c | 41.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 62c | 41.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 42c | 38.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 35c | 38.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 41c | 37.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…ff0bbacked No | 76c | 36.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23c…e07fbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 36c | 30.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 30.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 28.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 74c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 62c | 24.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 65c | 23.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 59c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 22.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 59c | 17.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.