TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,158
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,158 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes31c1,234$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.834,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes37c986.3$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.531043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No76c433.16$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2721268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c383.06$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.962,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No74c195.09$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked No57c183.29$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2321641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c173.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.377,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed Yes34c158.18$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5914638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c154.65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No75c150.83$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0952571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No60c147.03$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.244,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes23c145$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6910736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes25c136.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.414228.6%12 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes29c118.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.012,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c109.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ead…f333backed Yes28c107.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.524531.1%14 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.421,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c97.62$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.792,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes25c97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.971,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c94.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c93$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.885,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No67c92.24$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.83,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No66c86.95$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3343859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No76c78.23$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4616764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No65c77.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.11,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No72c73.62$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4220161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes32c71.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No78c69.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.452,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No77c69.79$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3588973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No75c67.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.923764.9%24 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes31c66.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.588,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes21c64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.354,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.359,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes22c54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7816324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No66c52.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0183360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf075…3f43backed No63c52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1810866.7%72 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes21c50.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3951321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No74c45.68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No68c45.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.554,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…fd8dbacked No63c45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.652821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-36.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x38b7…6c4fbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No61c39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2141258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes27c37.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010228.4%29 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No77c34.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1517066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No64c33.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9930168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes34c30.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.283,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.84,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.319037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.451,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No74c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.714666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed No75c28.53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0320266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No73c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4248672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No64c27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6139159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No74c26.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8311664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No71c26.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.782,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No69c25.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0667336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No60c25.95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.322,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No80c25.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf756…e505backed No80c25.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No64c23.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No70c21.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.382,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No72c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8917071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No66c18.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.343,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d21…b569backed No66c16.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7114158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.92,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No73c13.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6812057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.