TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,270
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,270 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes51c1,823$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.2931043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No4c523.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2182562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No55c287.1$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.411,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No26c220.4$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.454,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No70c209.54$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7521268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No67c194.09$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.762,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No40c188.41$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.559923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No59c173.29$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.242,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c158.04$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.244,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes47c149.71$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.668335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No52c123.64$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.73,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No12c108.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.061,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes56c101.69$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.875,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes65c92.41$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4114941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No39c91.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.024,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…90d9backed Yes77c90.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.695865.5%38 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c87$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.865,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c73.61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.532,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c73$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.269,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c72.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86bd…1543backed No63c70$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-67.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No71c67.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0952571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No70c66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.239968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d07…36bfbacked No60c63.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.322157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f9…e151backed Yes66c60.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.661861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No31c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.453,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.521,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No54c59.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2541258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes39c57.09$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5545236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2656…a5b8backed Yes37c56.83$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.727524%18 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8e0…efc9backed No63c56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed Yes25c55.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4714638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes28c53.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2666926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes38c51.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0651553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x649f…fd8dbacked No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-36.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7490734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No72c49.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.143764.9%24 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No69c49.3$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9262770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No69c48.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No44c47.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9143859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd61…02d4backed No56c46.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.092548%12 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f17…54b3backed Yes37c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.35650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked No55c44.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.188164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes29c43.35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.781,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x801a…5a2dbacked Yes37c43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.09757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No68c41.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.421,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.628649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No63c38.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.748672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a60…3902backed Yes37c38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.946100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+99%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.961,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes61c34.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4599961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes44c34.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.118228%23 W · 59 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-47.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad65…b49ebacked No66c31.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.967771.4%55 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No50c31.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.022,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c30.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.563,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No43c30.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.843,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.44337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No47c29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.739159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes45c27.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9730652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes52c26.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes53c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.171,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No46c25.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8138758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No63c25.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No62c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No68c24.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0514666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c35…4801backed No62c24.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.123056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No49c22.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9639157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No66c22.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5517071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No57c21.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.077,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No65c20.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9212057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes71c17.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.215152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No65c16.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.920161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.