Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x767146cc4a650e53c85230130676ef5e64f98c9d616f4e680d346036968a466b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,823$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.29 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 4c | 523.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 55c | 287.1$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.41 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 220.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 70c | 209.54$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 194.09$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 40c | 188.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 173.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 158.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 47c | 149.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 123.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 108.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 101.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 65c | 92.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 91.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 77c | 90.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 73.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 72.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…1543backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 67.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d07…36bfbacked No | 60c | 63.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…e151backed Yes | 66c | 60.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 54c | 59.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 39c | 57.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 37c | 56.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…efc9backed No | 63c | 56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 25c | 55.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 28c | 53.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 38c | 51.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 72c | 49.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 49.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 48.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 44c | 47.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed No | 56c | 46.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…54b3backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 55c | 44.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 29c | 43.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x801a…5a2dbacked Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 41.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 63c | 38.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…3902backed Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +99%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 61c | 34.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 66c | 31.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 31.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 30.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 43c | 30.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 45c | 27.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 26.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 46c | 25.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 25.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 62c | 24.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 49c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 66c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 21.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 65c | 20.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 71c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 65c | 16.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.