MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb093492c6c1ef29f6d1be57b31e21e73b0d2246a3c2384c391ec2ba5ed0164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 1,493$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.88 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 76c | 1,462$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 990.7$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 741.67$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.04 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 399.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.37 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Baltimore Orioles | 10c | 389.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.69 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 355.72$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.43 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Baltimore Orioles | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 272.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.22 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 256$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 245.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 242.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.36 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 240.15$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 188.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 169.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 151.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 130.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 120.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 119.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 96.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 89.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 87.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 75.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 73.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 69.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 69.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 66.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 65.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…930ebacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 59.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 56.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Kansas City Royals | 71c | 51.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 46.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 45.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kansas City Royals | 73c | 41.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 36.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 31.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 22.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 22.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 20.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 19.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City RoyalsBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 2.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.