MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c48df98bfa8672fd778d9666446d8344d98166fd2c7ef9a2d5c6fe351228e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 55c | 104,804$57,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,161.96 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed Under | 45c | 95,831$43,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,123.79 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 45c | 4,140$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.96 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 45c | 3,531$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.74 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.97 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 2,794$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 1,830$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.17 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…c161backed Over | 55c | 1,753$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.56 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 45c | 1,611$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.96 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 45c | 1,123$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.47 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 707.87$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 50c | 647.15$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.16 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Under | 45c | 618.44$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.3 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 53c | 525.95$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.09 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 380.03$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.01 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 18c | 302.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.26 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 55c | 265.36$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 50c | 261.31$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…ca5abacked Under | 6c | 250.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 55c | 250.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 43c | 231.83$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 226.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Over | 55c | 222.82$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…bbefbacked Under | 45c | 215.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Under | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…a579backed Over | 56c | 210.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 45c | 203.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 55c | 199.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a65…c0e0backed Under | 45c | 190.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 186.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 56c | 184.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…944fbacked Over | 56c | 183.54$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…2c21backed Over | 12c | 181.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +231.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 171.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 42c | 161.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 134.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 56c | 108.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked Over | 56c | 105.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 45c | 103.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 45c | 98.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Under | 57c | 85.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…d76dbacked Over | 56c | 85.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 15c | 78.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 45c | 75.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 50.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 56c | 48.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 48.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 43c | 44.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 56c | 42.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Under | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 72c | 37.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 54c | 37.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 45c | 36.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4284…4e8cbacked Over | 55c | 35.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…cc8abacked Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 57c | 35.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…282dbacked Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…7579backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…1692backed Under | 45c | 34.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 45c | 32.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 45c | 32.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d010backed Under | 62c | 31.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 47c | 30.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 38c | 29.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Under | 45c | 27.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 46c | 27.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 45c | 26.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…4632backed Over | 55c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…bdd8backed Over | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1477…29b6backed Over | 55c | 19.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City RoyalsBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 2.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.