TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, Ninjas in Pyjamas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,656

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,771 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93bc…8ca3backed Ninjas in Pyjamas30c1,253$374 inLost-$374.223,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Ninjas in Pyjamas32c630.88$200 inLost-$200.1315645.5%71 W · 85 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Bilibili Gaming68c599.97$408 inWon+$191.991,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Bilibili Gaming70c500$350 inWon+$15082161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed Ninjas in Pyjamas27c385.77$104 inLost-$104.1612839.8%51 W · 77 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Bilibili Gaming73c342.47$250 inWon+$92.4730255.6%168 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bilibili Gaming69c339.49$234 inWon+$105.861,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Ninjas in Pyjamas31c306.34$95 inLost-$94.971,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked Bilibili Gaming70c242.86$169 inWon+$73.8610652.8%56 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Bilibili Gaming62c220.94$136 inWon+$84.9419042.1%80 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6f…06c4backed Ninjas in Pyjamas38c220.94$85 inLost-$84.94214.8%1 W · 20 L-5.6wins-0.27per pick31cpaid-87.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Bilibili Gaming71c200.03$142 inWon+$57.734862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Ninjas in Pyjamas30c192.23$57 inLost-$56.991,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…f948backed Bilibili Gaming70c190$133 inWon+$575961%36 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ea…8b9abacked Bilibili Gaming69c175$121 inWon+$54.2521456.5%121 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas30c158.2$47 inLost-$47.1949940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4790…2dd7backed Bilibili Gaming70c142.86$100 inWon+$42.865044%22 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c04…ba84backed Bilibili Gaming71c123.83$88 inWon+$35.912254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed Ninjas in Pyjamas31c105.57$33 inLost-$32.6740435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Bilibili Gaming70c100$70 inWon+$3032457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Ninjas in Pyjamas28c90$25 inLost-$25.21,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8688…a520backed Bilibili Gaming69c80$55 inWon+$24.816251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c8…97b4backed Bilibili Gaming70c75.71$53 inWon+$22.7167763.4%429 W · 248 L-16.4wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e5c…7b2bbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas32c65.63$21 inLost-$211741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd11…79a5backed Ninjas in Pyjamas32c65$21 inLost-$20.822356.5%126 W · 97 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0640…1cd6backed Ninjas in Pyjamas32c59.34$19 inLost-$18.9914935.6%53 W · 96 L-12.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03c4…6f4ebacked Bilibili Gaming70c42.86$30 inWon+$12.8624453.3%130 W · 114 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefff…c0efbacked Bilibili Gaming71c42.25$30 inWon+$12.258757.5%50 W · 37 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-7.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc76e…caa5backed Bilibili Gaming72c41.75$30 inWon+$11.7531352.4%164 W · 149 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa550…d2e0backed Bilibili Gaming73c41.1$30 inWon+$11.13865.8%25 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Ninjas in Pyjamas32c40$13 inLost-$12.820239.6%80 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5b…4ef4backed Bilibili Gaming72c30$22 inWon+$8.45648.2%27 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid+29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Bilibili Gaming69c28.23$19 inWon+$8.7532752.9%173 W · 154 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c1…1296backed Bilibili Gaming73c27.4$20 inWon+$7.41181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d7…0eddbacked Bilibili Gaming70c21.43$15 inWon+$6.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Bilibili Gaming68c20.92$14 inWon+$6.641662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.