World Politics · resolved market
Trudeau no confidence motion passes in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1f711b8a263a39ccb5a19d884f4f69b697397fc57a836ccc9aaf5af7dd1eea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $316,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $447,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 1c | 18,113$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.02 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25a9…f991backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…b048backed Yes | 5c | 10,021$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 2c | 8,773$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.91 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 7,523$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.83 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…6788backed Yes | 1c | 5,631$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed Yes | 23c | 4,778$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…859ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,011$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 78c | 2,908$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.31 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,435$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,311$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 5c | 2,038$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…c666backed Yes | 5c | 2,009$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 21c | 2,000$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.32 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…e05fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,488$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf409…3d4dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,287$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,098$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd94d…365ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,032$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 16c | 1,024$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.81 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…6d0cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 11c | 864.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes | 9c | 855$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…9a35backed Yes | 12c | 818.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 12c | 811.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 723.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbf…b0b3backed Yes | 4c | 620.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…e72dbacked Yes | 12c | 601.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…cf66backed Yes | 12c | 553.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 3c | 543.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85e7…5e49backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf598…388fbacked Yes | 6c | 431.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 9c | 318$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…0312backed Yes | 5c | 313.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1971…2bcdbacked Yes | 7c | 219.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…5b24backed No | 79c | 218.55$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 20c | 157.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed No | 73c | 156$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 14c | 152$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955d…cab0backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…6602backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 23c | 125.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761e…1e8abacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…5ef7backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c82…934fbacked Yes | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 100.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…1096backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…9ce7backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…e330backed No | 79c | 63.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc025…b891backed Yes | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…0303backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 77c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked No | 73c | 30.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645d…6b5dbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…fe85backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…75a2backed No | 79c | 20.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.