NBA · resolved market
Will the Thunder and Bucks combine for 215 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d911655ba9df093a9a98a55c14738ab5c6881de775616954d5aef3d2a857150
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 68c | 8,848$6,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,048.99 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Under | 44c | 5,039$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,827.16 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 46c | 5,000$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,711.2 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…3f9fbacked Over | 54c | 3,985$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,151.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…ce8bbacked Under | 44c | 3,985$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 43c | 3,774$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135.6 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Under | 40c | 3,300$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.07 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…9848backed Over | 53c | 2,700$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…10dfbacked Over | 53c | 2,600$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Under | 48c | 2,222$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…ea3dbacked Under | 47c | 2,100$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a52…119abacked Under | 46c | 2,100$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Over | 52c | 2,021$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.92 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e30…ef89backed Over | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Under | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6b…1262backed Over | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Over | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33cd…c2b4backed Over | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…e5cdbacked Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d37…729cbacked Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3a…dc44backed Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Over | 54c | 1,445$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.05 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28cb…1d6ebacked Under | 47c | 1,400$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…adf7backed Under | 47c | 1,400$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…75fcbacked Under | 47c | 1,300$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1636…8c6abacked Under | 43c | 1,262$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2440…bf2ebacked Over | 54c | 1,261$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…fc63backed Under | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3316…52c1backed Over | 54c | 1,080$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d7…67c2backed Over | 53c | 1,050$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…40debacked Over | 53c | 1,050$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a67…5b72backed Over | 54c | 1,020$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…f83abacked Over | 55c | 1,016$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…e26cbacked Over | 57c | 817.47$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.96 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6a…6b17backed Under | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x552d…e189backed Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…960dbacked Over | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…4f57backed Over | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…6913backed Over | 54c | 700$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa091…564ebacked Over | 54c | 700$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237c…5ceabacked Over | 53c | 700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…2a65backed Under | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Over | 56c | 626.42$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.16 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Over | 4c | 623.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Under | 55c | 602.05$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.92 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd8…eb7bbacked Under | 45c | 510$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Under | 40c | 504.17$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.5 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…df4cbacked Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Over | 55c | 457$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.35 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Under | 29c | 410$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.2 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…429abacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 178 | 38.2%68 W · 110 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Under | 22c | 176.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.53 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…8441backed Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…abc3backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…ed0ebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…8e18backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Under | 36c | 82.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 303 | 31.4%95 W · 208 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9415…cb92backed Under | 47c | 81.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…161dbacked Over | 54c | 65.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…21b8backed Over | 54c | 63.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Over | 53c | 59.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e3…b11abacked Under | 47c | 45.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…67e0backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…488dbacked Under | 41c | 34.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Over | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Over | 57c | 20.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 173 | 63.6%110 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Thunder and Bucks combine for 215 or more points?this page
- NBA Cup Final: Thunder vs. BucksBucks won
- Will the Thunder beat the Bucks by 5 or more points?MIL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.