NBA · resolved market
Will the Thunder beat the Bucks by 5 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01d2fefd1360e2e095ecaf0260c98c239e9b3bf358591818badffc3ef29387ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MILof OKC, MIL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19d8…1691backed OKC | 56c | 10,511$5,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,870.6 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed MIL | 44c | 9,773$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,472.72 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed OKC | 55c | 2,506$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.39 | 280 | 63.9%179 W · 101 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…4d61backed OKC | 55c | 2,158$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.95 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eae…a570backed MIL | 47c | 2,150$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked MIL | 46c | 2,137$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.46 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked OKC | 54c | 2,030$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.2 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…da40backed OKC | 54c | 2,014$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed MIL | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.99 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed MIL | 48c | 1,872$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.06 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6b…1262backed MIL | 45c | 1,780$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…fc63backed MIL | 47c | 1,300$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…adf7backed OKC | 53c | 1,300$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3d…f0c9backed MIL | 46c | 1,257$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.77 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 37cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…9f13backed OKC | 53c | 1,150$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed OKC | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…18e8backed OKC | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked MIL | 45c | 993.98$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.69 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed OKC | 52c | 828.4$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.77 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked MIL | 43c | 768.61$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.79 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…90ccbacked MIL | 46c | 750$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked MIL | 45c | 748.66$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.32 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked OKC | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -11.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed MIL | 45c | 558.33$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.08 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked MIL | 47c | 504.2$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.23 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed OKC | 58c | 375$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed MIL | 42c | 361.68$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.12 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed OKC | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…15d7backed OKC | 55c | 279.73$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.85 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked MIL | 42c | 271.68$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.57 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed MIL | 44c | 265.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.82 | 730 | 51.8%378 W · 352 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105e…4741backed OKC | 56c | 262.18$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.82 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed MIL | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 178 | 38.2%68 W · 110 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed OKC | 58c | 194.48$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 303 | 31.4%95 W · 208 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…b7fabacked OKC | 52c | 149.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked OKC | 57c | 105.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 306 | 48.7%149 W · 157 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked OKC | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…7bc3backed OKC | 58c | 89.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked MIL | 45c | 63.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed OKC | 28c | 52.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…3386backed MIL | 41c | 41.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…3628backed OKC | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c33…c968backed MIL | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed MIL | 46c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed MIL | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked MIL | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c2…4992backed OKC | 56c | 19.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed MIL | 58c | 17.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 360 | 45%162 W · 198 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Thunder beat the Bucks by 5 or more points?this page
- NBA Cup Final: Thunder vs. BucksBucks won
- Will the Thunder and Bucks combine for 215 or more points?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.