Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc68465722db03da78a39c41f652a64174d3ee978f7b530222c1df9e7f98050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 222.48$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 219.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.71 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 41c | 171.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 163.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 69c | 127.88$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 121.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 26c | 107.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 102.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 31c | 95.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 22c | 90.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 87.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 39c | 78.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 74.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 71.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 40c | 70.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 15c | 69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 20c | 66.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 31c | 55.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 39c | 49.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 49.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 80c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 47.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 38.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 38c | 38.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 28c | 36.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 36.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 49c | 33.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 34c | 33.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 32.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 31c | 32.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 61c | 32.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…64e2backed Yes | 64c | 31.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 30.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 30.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 29.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 61c | 28.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f13…72b5backed No | 64c | 27.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 48c | 26.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…ffb3backed Yes | 40c | 26.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…3de8backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa361…71d3backed No | 64c | 24.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 64c | 22.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 60c | 21.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 49c | 21.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 20.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 63c | 20.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…010ebacked Yes | 64c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.