Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06e94264596ebf643b275a4082b301906da7b6ceae1f7c7d76bac1ce7b81500a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ddd…357fbacked Yes | 26c | 400$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked No | 70c | 286.25$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 79c | 247.76$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 64c | 217.16$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.02 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 197.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…b83ebacked Yes | 26c | 191.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed No | 79c | 176.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 29c | 172.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 21c | 171.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 17c | 171$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 28c | 135.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 133.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 121.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 118.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 76c | 111.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 100.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 79c | 98.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 73c | 88.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 73c | 87.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 84.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 73c | 79.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 75.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 71c | 70.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 66.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 61.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d3…6538backed Yes | 31c | 60.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa30e…cf53backed Yes | 52c | 58.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 51c | 51.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 79c | 46.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 34c | 45.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…c734backed Yes | 79c | 39.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 48c | 37.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 41c | 37.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 76c | 36.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 76c | 32.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 32.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 30.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 52c | 26.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 24.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf922…dd4bbacked Yes | 54c | 21.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 48c | 21.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 20.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 20.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…61dfbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 79c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 60c | 17.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.