Fifa International · resolved market
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e0b84e3da7f56a77f7eca503dc1e51f4a8159fe9d72a41ee1891ba8e03b0181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85bb…9adabacked Yes | 5c | 44,444$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 324 | 29.9%97 W · 227 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bc…0821backed Yes | 5c | 41,188$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…94dcbacked Yes | 4c | 22,339$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e6…d83dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,894$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.77 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -12.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…f76dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,263$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Yes | 5c | 5,249$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.08 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes | 4c | 2,273$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 318 | 9.4%30 W · 288 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,078$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 302 | 20.2%61 W · 241 L | -15.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 4c | 1,405$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 1,327$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…381cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,221$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94c7…dba0backed Yes | 4c | 1,176$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…14b5backed Yes | 5c | 1,166$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 5c | 1,087$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Yes | 4c | 1,080$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa450…452fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,010$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Yes | 4c | 682.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 193 | 17.1%33 W · 160 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…1252backed Yes | 4c | 681.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 11.9%23 W · 171 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Yes | 5c | 502.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…dc64backed Yes | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2235…f3d7backed Yes | 4c | 448.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…e235backed Yes | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 293 | 38.2%112 W · 181 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1501…783fbacked Yes | 3c | 360$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6925…d76dbacked Yes | 4c | 333.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 298 | 13.8%41 W · 257 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 4c | 262.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…e65fbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 68. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsthis page
- Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assistsNo won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goalsYes won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shotsYes won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goalsNo won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shotsYes won
- Breel Embolo: 1+ assistsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 1+ goalsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 1+ shotsYes won
- Breel Embolo: 2+ goalsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 2+ shotsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 3+ goalsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 3+ shotsNo won
- Breel Embolo: 5+ shotsNo won
- Dan Ndoye: 1+ assistsNo won
- Dan Ndoye: 1+ goalsYes won
- Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assistsYes won
- Dan Ndoye: 2+ goalsNo won
- Dan Ndoye: 2+ shotsYes won
- Dan Ndoye: 3+ shotsYes won
- Denis Zakaria: 1+ shotsYes won
- Denis Zakaria: 2+ shotsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ assistsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ shotsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 2+ goalsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 2+ shotsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 3+ shotsNo won
- Fabian Rieder: 1+ goalsNo won
- Facundo Medina: 2+ shotsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goalsNo won
- Granit Xhaka: 1+ assistsNo won
- Granit Xhaka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Granit Xhaka: 1+ shotsYes won
- Granit Xhaka: 2+ goalsNo won
- Granit Xhaka: 2+ shotsYes won
- Granit Xhaka: 3+ shotsNo won
- Johan Manzambi: 1+ assistsNo won
- Johan Manzambi: 1+ goalsNo won
- Johan Manzambi: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ shotsYes won
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shotsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shotsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shotsNo won
- Leandro Paredes: 1+ assistsNo won
- Leandro Paredes: 2+ shotsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shotsYes won
- Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.