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Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DN SOOPers Challengersof T1 Academy, DN SOOPers Challengers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$219,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac75…1319backed T1 Academy49c20,004$9,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,801.9923351.1%119 W · 114 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbca…3b1ebacked DN SOOPers Challengers51c19,317$9,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,470.8110535.2%37 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked DN SOOPers Challengers51c19,013$9,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,316.5277131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9671…3a70backed T1 Academy13c12,400$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.182844.6%13 W · 271 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed T1 Academy25c8,133$2,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,007.554353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbff8…7073backed T1 Academy0c7,393$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.392240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed DN SOOPers Challengers49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.9941644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked T1 Academy42c3,872$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62753239.8%212 W · 320 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked DN SOOPers Challengers49c3,440$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.7415545.8%71 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8069…42dfbacked T1 Academy2c3,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-45.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked DN SOOPers Challengers50c2,891$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.859952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed T1 Academy51c2,522$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.435035.1%123 W · 227 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked T1 Academy39c2,403$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.5696057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd795…6fcdbacked T1 Academy14c2,394$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7531635.4%112 W · 204 L+14.8wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked T1 Academy61c2,224$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.321,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed T1 Academy62c2,000$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.835764.9%37 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb813…f0efbacked T1 Academy30c1,620$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.54332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked DN SOOPers Challengers27c1,603$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.182,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed T1 Academy52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.9959347.2%280 W · 313 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76d3…7034backed T1 Academy54c1,451$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7832548%12 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-12.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed T1 Academy28c1,430$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016034.4%55 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed DN SOOPers Challengers49c1,426$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.1537334.6%129 W · 244 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97f2…d84fbacked DN SOOPers Challengers25c1,419$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.7713345.1%60 W · 73 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked DN SOOPers Challengers67c1,319$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.652155.9%291 W · 230 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked DN SOOPers Challengers41c1,127$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.785046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed T1 Academy50c1,106$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.211,17749.4%581 W · 596 L-16.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed T1 Academy51c1,064$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.5342333.8%143 W · 280 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed T1 Academy39c1,048$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4044837.5%18 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a76…7efabacked DN SOOPers Challengers67c1,048$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1307…d640backed DN SOOPers Challengers54c1,017$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.967345.2%33 W · 40 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked T1 Academy72c1,012$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.9871362.1%443 W · 270 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked T1 Academy49c1,000$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48929536.9%109 W · 186 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked T1 Academy25c999.97$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2455733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed T1 Academy79c979.03$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.8522462.1%139 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x896a…7b9cbacked T1 Academy30c968.12$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.55875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed DN SOOPers Challengers58c964$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.52,38532.1%765 W · 1,620 L+44.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf7…b626backed T1 Academy47c951$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x014a…8aefbacked DN SOOPers Challengers53c951$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed DN SOOPers Challengers46c944.44$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5101,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked T1 Academy49c928.86$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.141,23748.1%595 W · 642 L+25.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed T1 Academy28c894.17$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.198924.7%22 W · 67 L-11.2wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7248…5394backed DN SOOPers Challengers76c884.13$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed DN SOOPers Challengers53c815.09$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.0915061.3%92 W · 58 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked T1 Academy27c805.07$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1619640.3%79 W · 117 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bf2…7706backed DN SOOPers Challengers48c747.26$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.583946.2%18 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked T1 Academy26c740$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.47045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed DN SOOPers Challengers50c718.42$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.3324750.6%125 W · 122 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked T1 Academy43c715.43$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.371,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked T1 Academy50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+53.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked T1 Academy33c700$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2325226.9%14 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed T1 Academy28c658.7$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.321,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed T1 Academy49c647.44$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32018347%86 W · 97 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8df0…96a6backed T1 Academy44c623.17$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.8610761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed T1 Academy46c617$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.161,81751.1%929 W · 888 L+52.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c49…ca9dbacked T1 Academy34c613$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.33636.1%13 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked T1 Academy51c611$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.6192450.9%470 W · 454 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b3…7c36backed T1 Academy7c600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked DN SOOPers Challengers51c599.96$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.981,61648.3%780 W · 836 L+22.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f67…da0ebacked T1 Academy51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010133.7%34 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59cf…71dabacked T1 Academy20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100229.1%2 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed T1 Academy52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26027535.3%97 W · 178 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed T1 Academy25c499.98$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9939951.9%207 W · 192 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed T1 Academy50c461.55$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.663,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked T1 Academy47c415.87$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9214529.7%43 W · 102 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b7…52bebacked T1 Academy48c407.8$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4318347.5%87 W · 96 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed T1 Academy29c402.91$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6916934.3%58 W · 111 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked T1 Academy31c383.59$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed T1 Academy45c379.55$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6931644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a0…b370backed T1 Academy7c362.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed DN SOOPers Challengers55c342.18$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.1554054.3%293 W · 247 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed T1 Academy13c339.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7229927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b6…c475backed T1 Academy63c315.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed T1 Academy25c308.25$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.621127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4756…b0e8backed T1 Academy33c304.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed DN SOOPers Challengers21c300$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2371,07628.4%306 W · 770 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed DN SOOPers Challengers48c300$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7910343.7%45 W · 58 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea08…f79abacked T1 Academy32c300$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked T1 Academy31c299$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2625923.2%60 W · 199 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed DN SOOPers Challengers46c297.23$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2344335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fed…359abacked T1 Academy50c289.33$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed T1 Academy48c279.99$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.431643%136 W · 180 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked T1 Academy29c279.18$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.219741.2%40 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x392c…0bb4backed T1 Academy8c269.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.643040%12 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked T1 Academy46c265.94$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.259147.3%43 W · 48 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4339…beeebacked DN SOOPers Challengers50c260.22$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.2117357.8%100 W · 73 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f0…564cbacked DN SOOPers Challengers41c254.86$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.8636331.1%113 W · 250 L+0.7wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf284…a2e2backed T1 Academy45c254.65$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e6…67b6backed T1 Academy67c252.52$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x527c…7b5bbacked DN SOOPers Challengers75c245.77$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked DN SOOPers Challengers33c245.45$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.531,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b5a…7070backed DN SOOPers Challengers70c237.59$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4614562.1%90 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed T1 Academy42c236.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006930.4%21 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6c…178cbacked T1 Academy44c227.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked T1 Academy48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016347.2%77 W · 86 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c44…6ecebacked DN SOOPers Challengers49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.08771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed DN SOOPers Challengers49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.086448.4%31 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3805…8f9cbacked DN SOOPers Challengers47c202$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3caa…0bdebacked T1 Academy53c202$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38bc…e913backed T1 Academy53c201$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2533…e5a1backed DN SOOPers Challengers47c201$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.