MLB · resolved market
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e7dd4c0e4e5782336fc1f04deaf920fb6363d4f5601d2b3cdd7611be0d98c9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diamondbacksof Diamondbacks, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf2…1facbacked Giants | 50c | 33,708$16,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,854 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…2e60backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 32,808$16,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,404 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Giants | 49c | 12,313$6,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,031.27 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Diamondbacks | 62c | 11,594$7,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,378.5 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc84…3e67backed Giants | 32c | 6,224$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Giants | 49c | 5,096$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.02 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 4,959$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.76 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Diamondbacks | 58c | 3,984$2,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.67 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Diamondbacks | 52c | 3,813$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.31 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 3,710$2,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.37 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Giants | 12c | 2,479$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks | 51c | 2,405$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.8 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…49a5backed Giants | 49c | 2,096$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5118…8488backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 1,921$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59df…81bdbacked Giants | 50c | 1,921$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…4280backed Giants | 15c | 1,624$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.64 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Giants | 17c | 1,242$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Giants | 10c | 1,008$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Giants | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d139backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 900$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Giants | 30c | 833.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Giants | 13c | 800$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Giants | 16c | 700.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4142…1853backed Giants | 50c | 498.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Giants | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Giants | 20c | 355.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Diamondbacks | 68c | 297.36$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…1f16backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 296.08$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Diamondbacks | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Diamondbacks | 67c | 292.49$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.59 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…c2bfbacked Diamondbacks | 71c | 280.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Giants | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 198.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Diamondbacks | 52c | 192.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Diamondbacks | 52c | 165.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Giants | 33c | 140$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5448…c169backed Diamondbacks | 73c | 136.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed Diamondbacks | 74c | 134.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Giants | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Giants | 49c | 110.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 102.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Diamondbacks | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Diamondbacks | 76c | 95.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef5…6014backed Giants | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Diamondbacks | 49c | 93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…53ecbacked Giants | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Diamondbacks | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Giants | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb80…9d8abacked Giants | 23c | 63.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Giants | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Diamondbacks | 49c | 49.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Giants | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Diamondbacks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Giants | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…f6cfbacked Giants | 28c | 38.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Diamondbacks | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…5857backed Diamondbacks | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…058cbacked Giants | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -66%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…9871backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 31.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Giants | 49c | 25.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670c…d5fabacked Diamondbacks | 77c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…3658backed Diamondbacks | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Diamondbacks | 63c | 21.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f6…0e7ebacked Diamondbacks | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 20.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…fc7ebacked Diamondbacks | 74c | 15.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.