Tennis · resolved market
Qatar Open, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Billy Harris
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e8d10be6c809e79dde600bfe29cc0a694bfb994779ddd39062fd58892f1bedd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bustaof Busta, Harris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Harris | 1c | 3,411$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Harris | 8c | 1,883$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Harris | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…6838backed Busta | 54c | 863.06$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.27 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Harris | 28c | 644$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.62 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Busta | 72c | 596.85$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.52 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Harris | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f46…4f2bbacked Busta | 54c | 427.74$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…9ab3backed Busta | 68c | 292.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Harris | 25c | 192.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Harris | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 52.1%101 W · 93 L | -13.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Busta | 79c | 157.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Harris | 25c | 156.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Harris | 52c | 155.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Busta | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Busta | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Busta | 75c | 145.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cf…d1e7backed Busta | 73c | 137.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Busta | 77c | 137$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | -13.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Harris | 27c | 127.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…5adbbacked Busta | 71c | 112.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 331 | 63.7%211 W · 120 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c5…e975backed Busta | 55c | 103.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.40per pick | 52cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Harris | 49c | 102.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Busta | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Harris | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Busta | 48c | 71.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Busta | 74c | 54.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Busta | 75c | 53.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Harris | 26c | 45.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Harris | 26c | 45.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Busta | 72c | 43.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…64eebacked Busta | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Harris | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 333 | 26.4%88 W · 245 L | -14.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Busta | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 153 | 43.8%67 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…16ccbacked Busta | 53c | 37.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Busta | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Busta | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 284 | 62.3%177 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Busta | 60c | 33.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Busta | 70c | 30.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…fd9dbacked Busta | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Busta | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 219 | 57.1%125 W · 94 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Busta | 71c | 27.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed Busta | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 144 | 75%108 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…1189backed Busta | 62c | 20.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Busta | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Busta | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe519…4cbebacked Busta | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Busta | 70c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.