Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f0f491387ed887f3f9dead95009fbda4f37e429dac4e257c1f78928ebff651e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 2,694$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.11 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 37c | 2,395$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.16 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 44c | 2,238$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.93 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.89 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…acc4backed No | 64c | 1,124$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.38 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 63c | 884.21$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.16 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 58c | 865.46$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 64c | 858.73$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.59 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 47c | 846.97$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.63 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 35c | 781.29$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.72 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 35c | 771.46$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.49 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 47c | 751.79$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.93 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 37c | 720.72$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.04 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 32c | 693.63$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.63 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 38c | 556.96$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.36 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 37c | 547.6$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.07 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 67c | 500$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.36 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Yes | 63c | 498.9$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.59 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed Yes | 36c | 420.27$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.96 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +9.3wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 45c | 386.24$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.52 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 50c | 339$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.42 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 54c | 339$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.82 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 52c | 339$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.66 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 41c | 324.34$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 61c | 311$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.62 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 29c | 311$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.81 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 304.08$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.18 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 33c | 286.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.52 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 61c | 262.17$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.43 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 32c | 232.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.65 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 40c | 217$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 64c | 202.27$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.45 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 31c | 197.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 64c | 195.09$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 78c | 191.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 64c | 177$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Yes | 60c | 162.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 61cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 33c | 155$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Yes | 26c | 147.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.51 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 65c | 142.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 63c | 127.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 73c | 123$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 70c | 103.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 39c | 101.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…abf7backed Yes | 73c | 100.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Yes | 30c | 100.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 68c | 99.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 15c | 98.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 33c | 89.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 69c | 89.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Yes | 63c | 88.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd492…7469backed Yes | 70c | 82.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 35c | 71.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 71c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 70c | 63.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 35c | 59.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Yes | 36c | 54.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Yes | 25c | 53.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 38c | 52.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 70c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…2e22backed Yes | 58c | 36.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed Yes | 66c | 35.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 70c | 33.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Yes | 62c | 32.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes | 65c | 31.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 47c | 28.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked No | 50c | 25.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.36per pick | 63cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked No | 65c | 22.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…c5a0backed Yes | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-13?this page
- Will Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.